Tanner Scott Scouting Report: 20-80 Grade Breakdown, Pitch Analysis, and Dodgers Bullpen Outlook

By The 20-80 Files — Anonymous MLB Scout

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In today’s major league environment, evaluating high-leverage relievers requires far more than velocity readings or a strong whiff rate. The struggles of Los Angeles Dodgers reliever Tanner Scott provide a valuable case study on the limitations of raw tools, the risks embedded in the 20-80 scouting scale, and the importance of pitch deception and durability.

Scott entered the season with significant expectations after signing a four-year, $72 million contract with the Dodgers. Instead, he produced a 4.74 ERA, blew 10 of 33 save opportunities, and missed crucial postseason action due to a groin infection that required surgery.

This report breaks down Scott using traditional scouting methodology, pitch-level analysis, and risk projection — offering a detailed, scout-driven look at what went wrong and what it means for the Dodgers going forward.

1. Tool Grades vs. Game Performance: A Core Scouting Conflict

On paper, Tanner Scott possesses the traits of a high-end late-inning reliever:

• Fastball Velocity: 96–99 mph (60–70 grade)
• Slider Movement: Late two-plane break (60–65 grade)
• Strikeout Potential: Plus

But plus tools don’t always hold up under ninth-inning pressure. High-leverage success depends on:

• Command and zone consistency
• Ability to stay composed after runners reach
• Proper pitch sequencing
• Deception and unpredictability

Scott’s 2024 season revealed breakdowns in several of these areas.

2. Mechanical Breakdown: Release Point Drift and Timing Issues

A deeper look at Scott’s mechanics shows two concerning trends:

• Release Point Inconsistency: His vertical release point drifted as the season progressed, particularly in late counts. This not only impacted command but also made his slider more readable.
• Timing Variability: Slight delays in hand break caused his fastball to flatten out, losing the late life that previously carried him.

For a reliever relying heavily on a two-pitch mix, even minor mechanical timing issues make a significant impact.

3. Pitch Tipping Concerns: Predictability Against Elite Hitters

Scott acknowledged that opponents may have been picking up his signs or patterns. From a scout’s perspective, the evidence aligns with that possibility:

• Fastball/slider tunneling deteriorated late in the year
• Glove tilt differed slightly between pitch types
• Tempo changes hinted pitch selection to experienced hitters

When deception disappears, even a 70-grade pitch plays closer to a 50. This is especially dangerous for closers who lack a credible third pitch.

4. Pitch Profile: A Two-Pitch Mix Under Stress

Fastball (60–70 grade potential)

• Strong velocity, but shape flattened due to inconsistent release
• Below-average command resulted in hitter-friendly counts
• Lost carry late in outings

Slider (60–65 grade)

• Still had strong horizontal sweep at times
• Became more readable when he slowed his tempo
• Hitters began pre-tracking the pitch due to tipping concerns

5. Durability and Late-Season Reliability

Elite relievers must remain available. Scott’s season ended prematurely due to a groin infection requiring surgery — an unexpected setback but one that impacts long-term reliability grades.

“70-grade raw stuff, but a 40–45 durability profile — a risky pairing for a closer.”

Reliability is a critical component of any 20-80 projection. Without it, ceiling projections are significantly discounted.

6. Dodgers' Next Move: Targeting Edwin Díaz and a More Stable Closer

Reports indicate the Dodgers are exploring the addition of Edwin Díaz, who turned in a dominant 2024 season with a 1.63 ERA, 28 saves, and elite strikeout metrics.

From a scouting standpoint, Díaz profiles as:

• 80-grade fastball when healthy
• Plus-plus slider
• Consistent deception
• Durability above league average

His addition would immediately elevate the Dodgers’ bullpen floor and ceiling.

Conclusion: The 20-80 Scale Explains Tools — Not Outcomes

Tanner Scott reminds us that the 20-80 grading system is a framework, not a prediction. Raw pitches can grade out as plus or plus-plus, but performance in leverage situations depends on:

• Mental resilience
• Sustainable mechanics
• Deception and tunneling
• Reliable availability

The Dodgers will reassess their bullpen based on these principles — and at The 20-80 Files, we will continue evaluating players the same way: by analyzing their tools, risks, and long-term projectability.

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